Merry Christmas: science isn't all it's cracked up to be...

(Tim, w/thanks to Pastor Curell) The scientific method is coming in for some hard knocks, recently, as efforts to replicate a number of critical studies fail. Some would prefer to put it that "replication is proving difficult," but after reading some of the stats, "failure" seems the right description. In discipline after discipline, scientists doing experiments over again find themselves unable to replicate earlier findings that minted academic superstars and set the standard for medical practice, for instance.

Some of the inability to replicate is likely attributable to the very old problem we all fall into of looking for proof that we're right. The problem is too widespread, though, for that alone to be the answer. Thus the New Yorker subtitled its article reporting on this crisis under its Annals of Science: "The Truth Wears Off: Is There Something Wrong with the Scientific Method?"

After reviewing hundreds of papers and forty-four meta-analyses, Australian National University's Michael Jennions found "a consistent decline effect over time, as many of the theories seemed to fade into irrelevance. ...Jenions admits that his findings are troubling, but expresses a reluctance to talk about them publicly."

"...'This is a very sensitive issue for scientists,' he says. 'You know, we're supposed to be dealing with hard facts, the stuff that's supposed to stand the test of time. But when you see these trends you become a little more skeptical of htings."

Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis wrote a paper frequently cited by his peers that was titled, "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False."

Again and again, I exhort young scholars working toward their doctorate that God is true though all men are liars. It may be a bit harsh to use the word "liar" in the context of the replication crisis, but there's been no shortage of scientists who deny and ridicule the Word of God. Creation is their favorite whipping boy, but they're not averse to attacking the precious blood of Jesus Christ as Richard Dawkins did in the Guardian this Christmas holiday:

The creator of the universe, sublime inventor of mathematics, of relativistic space-time, of quarks and quanta, of life itself, Almighty God, who reads our every thought and hears our every prayer, omniscient, omnipotent, omnipresent God couldn't think of a better way to forgive us than to have himself tortured and executed. For heaven's sake, if he wanted to forgive us, why didn't he just forgive us? Who, after all, needed to be impressed by the blood and the agony? Nobody but himself.

Ratzinger has much to confess in his own conduct, as cardinal and pope. But he is also guilty of promoting one of the most repugnant ideas ever to occur to a human mind: "Without the shedding of blood there is no forgiveness" (Hebrews 9:22).

That's the eminent British scientist, Richard Dawkins of Oxford--the one God calls a fool.

The scientific method has been quite helpful in saving hundreds of millions of lives, but it has its limitations.

Meanwhile, we should beware of confusing the scientific method with science or scientists.

Science and scientists are in for a fall from the divinity status the Enlightenment bequethed them and I'll be happy to lend my hand to the godly work of toppling them from that pedestal. The godless ideological commitments of many men claiming the mantle of "science" as their authority has intimidated the simple and weak and trusting and child-like for too many years and it's time to call an end to it. Thus I find this replication problem delightful. It's one more nail in the coffin of the foolish idolatry of science that has sent too, too many souls to denial of the Word of God, the Son of God, the Blood of Jesus Christ, and Hell.

So as I said, a very merry Christmas to all!

Comments

And to science a good night.

The data that may support an hypothesis is flawed by the fact that it is only a sampling that implies a possibility, possibly a probability, but never a certainty. Data support the statement that "every man is a liar", but what makes it true is that God, "of whom and through whom and to whom are all things", the Creator, has said it. Those who deny what was, from the fall of Adam, etched in their hearts continue to lie to themselves and to look for truth in all the wrong places.

Given the transient nature of scientific discoveries, one might expect our contemporary scientists to operate with a little more humilty.

I wonder how many science departments offer courses on the history of science.

Lehrer is exaggerating when he says it's as if our facts are losing their truth and acts as if there's some big problem looming in science. What he talks about is the normal scientific process. Interesting new things are always being published, and a bunch of them turn out to be contradicted by new studies within a few years and are tossed out.That, in fact, is the very reason the textbooks are reliable--- the kind of thing he's talking about doesn't make it to the textbooks. The textbooks are wrong sometimes, too, but that's in fields where it's hard to check a study (e.g. Margaret Mead's classic and wrong study of Samoan culture) or when a theory is replaced by a new theory rather than a fact study by a new study (e.g. Copernicus replacing Ptolemy). A blog wrote of the New Yorker article,

"In fact, one thing I noticed right away in Lehrer’s articles is that the examples he chose were, by and large, taken from either psychology, parapsychology, or ecology, rather than physics and chemistry."

Note, too, that Lehrer is not talking about intentional deceit, but about fads and unintentional conformity. Deceit is unimportant generally in science, but in fringe areas it is what outsiders have to watch out for (e.g. climate science, cultural anthropology).

The Dawkins Guardian article is blasphemous, but notable because he does state the case clearly: Christians believe God required Jesus to die because we are all sinful. He finds that scandalous, as indeed anyone should, and so he says it has to be false, which a scientist shouldn't. It isn't pleasant to think that we are sinful and there is no way out except the crucifixion, but that doesn't alter whether it's true or not. At least he gets what Christianity is all about, unlike most people, who would agree with the commentor who says:

"I find it mesmerizing to watch people like Dawkins become obsessed about the literal meaning of the Bible, thereby following the ultra orthodox, instead of understanding it as a form of evolving culture that has sought to explain the world.

I am not religious myself, but this word-for-word deconstruction that Dawkins and other atheist zealots pursue is juvenile and embarrassing."

http://crayz.org/science.pdf

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2010/dec/24/pope-benedict-thought-for-the-day

Dear Eric,

Two quick things. First, the para-psychological reference was only a reference, and obviously not in any way intended to advance his thesis. Second, the scientists quoted did think they had a problem on their hands, and not simply that it was the normal ebb and flow of particular good and bad hypotheses and studies.

And the results not able to be replicated were not initially published in journals like "Evolutionary Parapsychology for Fools and Idiots Today," but (to take two specific cases) "JAMA" and "Nature." So actually, they're already in textbooks.

Your comment about Dawkins is excellent.

Love,

For what it's worth, my take on this is that it's inductive logic first of all (never conclusive to begin with), and nobody ever gets to be a full professor by consistently selecting the null hypothesis.

In other words, the very nature of modern academia pushes scientists to put their fingers on the scale to get published. Hence we find their conclusions don't stand the test of time, to no one's surprise.

Add new comment